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Next 189 cut-off forecast by occupation
Frozen on 1 November 2026 · Data as at 30 September 2026
For the next 189 round we expect 95 of the 140 occupations invited on 4 June 2026 to keep the same cut-off, 36 to go lower and 9 to go higher. This forecast was frozen on 1 November 2026 and will be scored on this page after the round, hits and misses alike.
Same cut-off
95
occupations
Lower
36
occupations
Higher
9
occupations
Frozen on
1 November 2026
EOI data as at 30 September 2026
Scorecard
Nothing scored yet: this is our first forecast and the next 189 round has not been held. The day the round is published, this table shows how many cut-offs we got exactly right, how many fell inside the range, and how the plain "same as last time" rule did.
Forecast by occupation
| Occupation | Last cut-off | Forecast | Likely range | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actuary 224111 | 90 | 90 = | 85–95 | <20 above and 26 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Agricultural Consultant 234111 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | 56 above and 117 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Agricultural Scientist 234112 | 80 | 85 ↑ | 80–90 | 60 EOIs already above the last cut-off, more than the 47 at it |
| Airconditioning and Mechanical Services Plumber 334112 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanic 342111 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Architect 232111 | 85 | 85 = | 80–90 | 38 above and 153 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Arts Administrator or Manager 139911 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Audiologist 252711 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | <20 above and 29 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Automotive Electrician 321111 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Barrister 271111 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Biotechnologist 234514 | 95 | 95 = | 90–100 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Boat Builder and Repairer 399111 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Bricklayer 331111 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | 74 above and 102 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Cabinetmaker 394111 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Cardiologist 253312 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Carpenter 331212 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | 412 above and 639 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Carpenter and Joiner 331211 | 65 | 70 ↑ | 65–75 | 41 EOIs already above the last cut-off, more than the 28 at it |
| Cartographer 232213 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Chemist 234211 | 85 | 85 = | 80–90 | 36 above and 78 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Child Care Centre Manager 134111 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Chiropractor 252111 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and 80 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Clinical Psychologist 272311 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Construction Project Manager 133111 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | 199 above and 330 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Dancer or Choreographer 211112 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Dermatologist 253911 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Diagnostic and Interventional Radiologist 253917 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Drainer 334113 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Economist 224311 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | 33 above and 41 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Electrical Engineering Draftsperson 312311 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | 28 above and 27 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Electrical Engineering Technician 312312 | 80 | 85 ↑ | 80–90 | 47 EOIs already above the last cut-off, more than the <20 at it |
| Electrician (General) 341111 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | 74 above and 116 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Electrician (Special Class) 341112 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | 0 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Electronic Equipment Trades Worker 342313 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Electronic Instrument Trades Worker (General) 342314 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Electronic Instrument Trades Worker (Special Class) 342315 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Electronics Engineer 233411 | 95 | 95 = | 90–100 | <20 above and 331 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Emergency Medicine Specialist 253912 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Endocrinologist 253315 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Engineering Manager 133211 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and 26 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Environmental Consultant 234312 | 80 | 85 ↑ | 80–90 | 85 EOIs already above the last cut-off, more than the 61 at it |
| Environmental Manager 139912 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and 21 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Environmental Research Scientist 234313 | 80 | 85 ↑ | 80–90 | 33 EOIs already above the last cut-off, more than the <20 at it |
| Environmental Scientists nec 234399 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Fibrous Plasterer 333211 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Fitter (General) 323211 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Fitter and Turner 323212 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Food Technologist 234212 | 85 | 85 = | 80–90 | 46 above and 99 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Footballer 452411 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Forester 234113 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Gasfitter 334114 | 70 | 70 = | 65–75 | 0 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Gastroenterologist 253316 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| General Practitioner 253111 | 75 | 80 ↑ | 75–85 | 259 EOIs already above the last cut-off, more than the 236 at it |
| Geophysicist 234412 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Glazier 333111 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Hydrogeologist 234413 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Intensive Care Specialist 253317 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Joiner 331213 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Land Economist 224511 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Landscape Architect 232112 | 85 | 85 = | 80–90 | <20 above and 24 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Life Scientist (General) 234511 | 95 | 95 = | 90–100 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Life Scientists nec 234599 | 95 | 95 = | 90–100 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Lift Mechanic 341113 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Management Consultant 224711 | 80 | 85 ↑ | 80–90 | 147 EOIs already above the last cut-off, more than the 115 at it |
| Marine Biologist 234516 | 95 | 95 = | 90–100 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Medical Diagnostic Radiographer 251211 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and 22 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Medical Laboratory Scientist 234611 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | 63 above and 90 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Medical Practitioners nec 253999 | 75 | 80 ↑ | 75–85 | 219 EOIs already above the last cut-off, more than the 158 at it |
| Medical Radiation Therapist 251212 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Metal Fabricator 322311 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Metal Machinist (First Class) 323214 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Metallurgist 234912 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Meteorologist 234913 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Microbiologist 234517 | 95 | 95 = | 90–100 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Midwife 254111 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | <20 above and 30 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Mining Engineer (excluding Petroleum) 233611 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | 48 above and 49 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Multimedia Specialist 261211 | 95 | 95 = | 90–100 | <20 above and 52 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Music Director 211212 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Musician (Instrumental) 211213 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Natural and Physical Science Professionals nec 234999 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Nuclear Medicine Technologist 251213 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Nurse Practitioner 254411 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Obstetrician and Gynaecologist 253913 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Occupational Therapist 252411 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 96 above and 179 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Ophthalmologist 253914 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Optometrist 251411 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Organisational Psychologist 272313 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Orthopaedic Surgeon 253514 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Orthotist or Prosthetist 251912 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Osteopath 252112 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Other Spatial Scientist 232214 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | 24 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Paediatrician 253321 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Panelbeater 324111 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Petroleum Engineer 233612 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | 26 above and 48 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Physicist 234914 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Physiotherapist 252511 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 141 above and 207 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Plumber (General) 334116 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | 0 above and 0 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Podiatrist 252611 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Primary Health Organisation Manager 134213 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Psychiatrist 253411 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Psychologists nec 272399 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 39 above and 45 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Aged Care) 254412 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 289 above and 618 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Child and Family Health) 254413 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Community Health) 254414 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | <20 above and 31 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Critical Care and Emergency) 254415 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 133 above and 372 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Developmental Disability) 254416 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Registered Nurse (Disability and Rehabilitation) 254417 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Medical Practice) 254421 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | <20 above and 33 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Medical) 254418 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 145 above and 380 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Mental Health) 254422 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 70 above and 142 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Paediatrics) 254425 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and 21 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Perioperative) 254423 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 54 above and 118 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurse (Surgical) 254424 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 78 above and 158 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Registered Nurses nec 254499 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 1,174 above and 2,019 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Roof Plumber 334115 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Secondary School Teacher 241411 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 484 above and 697 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Sheetmetal Trades Worker 322211 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Shipwright 399112 | 80 | 75 ↓ | 70–80 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Social Worker 272511 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 303 above and 474 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Solicitor 271311 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | 139 above and 145 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Solid Plasterer 333212 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | 23 above and 32 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Sonographer 251214 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Special Education Teachers nec 241599 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Special Needs Teacher 241511 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Specialist Physician (General Medicine) 253311 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Specialist Physicians nec 253399 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and 0 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Speech Pathologist 252712 | 75 | 75 = | 70–80 | 39 above and 48 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Statistician 224113 | 90 | 90 = | 85–95 | 45 above and 136 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Stonemason 331112 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Surgeon (General) 253511 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Surveyor 232212 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Telecommunications Engineer 263311 | 95 | 95 = | 90–100 | <20 above and 23 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Telecommunications Network Engineer 263312 | 95 | 95 = | 90–100 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Tennis Coach 452316 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Thoracic Medicine Specialist 253324 | 95 | 90 ↓ | 85–95 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Urologist 253518 | 100 | 95 ↓ | 90–100 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
| Valuer 224512 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and <20 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Veterinarian 234711 | 80 | 85 ↑ | 80–90 | 57 EOIs already above the last cut-off, more than the 36 at it |
| Wall and Floor Tiler 333411 | 65 | 65 = | 65–70 | 78 above and 95 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Welder (First Class) 322313 | 80 | 80 = | 75–85 | <20 above and 67 at the last cut-off: no strong signal |
| Welfare Centre Manager 134214 | 85 | 80 ↓ | 75–85 | Almost no one is waiting at or above the last cut-off |
↑ higher · ↓ lower · = same as last time. Only occupations invited in the last round are forecast; others have no recent cut-off to start from.
How the forecast works
- We start from each occupation's cut-off in the last round (4 June 2026). Simply repeating the previous cut-off would have been exactly right / within 5 points this often in recent rounds: 21 August 2025: 37% / 76%; 13 November 2025: 25% / 85%; 4 June 2026: 36% / 80%.
- Then we read the 189 queue (SkillSelect EOI data as at 30 September 2026). Everyone above the last cut-off was invited in that round, so EOIs now above it arrived since. If at least 30 are above it and they outnumber those sitting exactly at it, we forecast 5 points higher. If 3 or fewer are waiting at or above it, the next invitation has to come from lower scores, so we forecast 5 points lower (never below 65).
- The likely range is the forecast plus or minus 5 points. The size of the next round is not known in advance and can move every cut-off at once.
- The forecast is saved before the round and never edited afterwards. When the round is published we score it here, including the misses.
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Common questions
What will the next 189 cut-off be?
For most occupations we expect the same cut-off as on 4 June 2026 (95 of 140). We expect 36 to be lower and 9 higher. Find your occupation in the table above.
When is the next 189 round?
Home Affairs does not announce round dates. The last 189 round was on 4 June 2026. Sign up for round alerts to get an email when the next one is published.
How accurate is this forecast?
We publish the score after every round, misses included, in the scorecard above. Until the first round is scored, the best guide is how the "same as last time" rule did in recent rounds, shown in the method section.
A forecast from public data, not migration advice and not a promise of an invitation.